Spike seen in deaths of young men in the UK

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According to a report by HART – the Health Advisory Recovery Team – mortality data for England and Wales from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) shows a “significant excess” of deaths in young men in the 15-19 year age group.

The report says that depending on the baseline chosen, the excess death rate for 15-19 year-olds is between 16% and 47% above expected levels.

“Covid-19 deaths were too small in number to account for the excess,” says the report. “A disproportionate number of these excess deaths were in males. A certain amount of variation by random chance would be expected but an increase of this proportion is large enough not to be dismissed without further investigation.”

Authors of the report add that a similar magnitude of excess is seen in the 20-29 year old age groups, although background rates are higher.

There were 21 male deaths in excess of what would be expected

“Comparing just deaths in males aged 15-19 year olds, there were between 52 and 87 excess deaths (depending on baseline),” sates the report.

“This clear predominance of male deaths could be in keeping with known risks of myocarditis which has a bias to men and boys.”

The report states that although concerns have been raised about a variety of adverse reactions to vaccination, the most serious and common thus far is the risk of myocarditis.

“Myocarditis is a serious condition associated acutely with fatal arrhythmias, and chronically, because myocytes are irreplaceable, with heart failure and significant associated mortality,” sate the report’s authors.

“As the aetiology of Covid-19 vaccine-induced myocarditis is new it may be unwise to extrapolate the prognosis from what is known about myocarditis due to other aetiologies. However, in the literature the overall mortality rate for myocarditis after one year is 20% and after five years 44% to 56%

“In 2015-2019 males accounted for 65% of deaths in the 15-19 year age group, rising to 70% in 20-29 year olds. If the entire excess had been due just to random variation we would have expected 65% of the excess to have been male.

“However, there were too many male deaths to reach that conclusion. There were 21 male deaths in excess of what would be expected with a normal male female ratio (2020 baseline) or 25 male deaths in excess (2015-2019 baseline).

“Male excess deaths were calculated by subtracting male deaths from the baseline figures for male deaths. For 15-19 year olds there were 52 excess male deaths from 1 May 2021 to 17 September 2021 compared to 2015-2019 baseline, however there were only 44 excess deaths in total.

“This implies that there were fewer female deaths than expected in this period if using the 2015-2019 baseline.

“In contrast, for the Mortality data for England and Wales from ONS from 1 January 2021 until 30 April 2021, there were only a small number of deaths above expected levels, almost all of which could be accounted for as COVID-19 deaths.”

The reports that mortality has risen in younger age groups since 1 May 2021. The increase in the 15-19 year old age group is particularly noticeable, especially as deaths in this age group are uncommon.

The report’s authors state: “The excess deaths have a marked male predominance. An increase in ambulance call outs for patients who have had a cardiac arrest or are unconscious showed a coincidental noticeable rise from May 2021. The period also coincides with the rollout of vaccination.

“Finally, ONS have reported on a striking rise in age adjusted mortality rates in those with only one dose that accelerated in May 2021 to levels far exceeding those in the unvaccinated.

“Although there may be a number of explanations for these findings, further investigation of the cause of these deaths is warranted. The ONS death data and NIMS vaccination data have previously been linked. Without that link ONS could not have published on deaths after vaccination. Therefore, confirming the proportion of the 15-19 year olds that had been vaccinated should be possible.”

See the full HART report with charts/graphs here.

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