What’s behind a predicted spike in covid cases?

By Charles Coles – report and commentary

It’s all over the mainstream ‘news’ – nurses, doctors, medical specialists and politicians such as Health Minister Andrew Little, are all very worried there will be a surge in covid cases. Nurses claim there is not enough capacity in the health system to cope, while Little says it will be fine. Meanwhile, breathless headlines detail higher covid case numbers and hospitalisations.

Given the majority of the country’s population is vaccinated with at least one shot I struggle to understand what’s going on. But I have a few ideas I’m happy to share…

First off, the Ministry of Health point blank refuses to say if any of the ‘community cases’ (102 on Thursday) are vaccinated against covid-19. A spokesperson says MoH is not releasing those details (why? They are not saying).

The authorities must know exactly who is and who is not vaccinated (soldiers apparently door-knocked the unvaccinated last weekend) and whether those who are vaccinated have had one dose, two doses, and exactly which batch number of the vaccine they have been given. MoH says 46 people are in hospital with covid-19.

Point is, wouldn’t it be interesting to know how many of those who are in hospital are fully vaccinated? Or if the community cases are vaccinated.

What we don’t know is if any of the 46 in hospital were unwell prior to being diagnosed with a covid infection. Could it be that some would have ended up in hospital in any case, because thousands of operations and treatments for serious diseases have been postponed due to government lockdowns. We don’t know.

Is it the delta variant? Could it be that the current batch of Pfizer vaccines being used in New Zealand (ordered in 2020) are no match for delta variant?

If you’re not double-dosed then your freedoms will be restricted. And it seems we will be in some form of lockdown until at least 29 November based of comments made by PM Jacinda Ardern’s Traffic Light announcement today (Friday, 22 October – see video below).

It’s worth noting here that Medsafe’s provisional approval for the Pfizer vaccine expires in November.

Lower immunity

Could it be, as some reports suggest, that the vaccine itself lowers people’s general immunity, even temporarily. Could this be making some people unwell?

One report from the BMJ notes that four in 10 people who are clinically vulnerable generate lower levels of antibodies than healthy recipients of the vaccine after two shots of vaccine against SARS-CoV-2. And we would know things such as this had there been extensive clinical trials lasting a few years as is normal for any new medical treatment.

Elsewhere, Medical Life Science reports (in May 2021) that researchers have warned that Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine induces complex reprogramming of innate immune responses. The immune system is made up of two parts: the innate, (general) immune system and the adaptive (specialized) immune system. These two systems work closely together and take on different tasks.

The report states: “Little is known about the broad effects the vaccine may have on the innate and adaptive immune responses…The researchers say that in combination with strong adaptive immune responses, the reprogramming of innate responses could either contribute to a more balanced inflammatory reaction to SARS-CoV-2 infection or a weakened innate immune response.”

Speculation

Unfortunately, those with a questioning mind are left to speculate and guess because the information is not free-flowing from any government department when it comes to covid vaccines (or much else). And I have to say that never in my years have I seen any government so hell-bent on ensuring the wellbeing of its population, essentially compelling everyone to take an experimental drug to ‘save the health system’.

If the health system is not up to the job – given covid popped up in 2019 – then who’s fault is that?

At best, a vaccinated person will save themselves from the symptoms of the covid virus. It won’t prevent them catching it or spreading it.

A conspiracy theorist might speculate that this whole thing has little to do with a vaccine and more to do with a Vaccine Passport, an ID card to track everyone’s location all the time. Shudder the thought.

I can imagine a card to scan in and out of shops, much like a travel pass that’s used when getting on and off a bus. But the system for this may be some time away. No doubt Microsoft has a solution, much like IBM did 80 years ago.

In short, we’ve gone from ‘flattern the curve’ for a few weeks in 2020 to vaccination, double vaccination, 90% vaccination countrywide, to 90% in every DHB area (and let’s not forget DHBs are being phased out by Andrew Little as we speak).

And if one looks abroad to country’s such as Israel – currently preparing its fourth covid shot – then we can take an educated guess that booster shots in New Zealand are not far away and that will be used as another delaying tactic while systems are put in place for a national ID card system (Vax Passport).